Apart from a traditional disclaimer that this write-up is by no means investment advice (full disclaimer), I would also like to note that the main reason for writing this thesis is to keep track of my thought process. Writing not only helps to think more clearly, but also reduces the negative consequences of various biases. Besides, if someone finds flaws in my reasoning or is kind enough to point out a factual mistake, I would be more than grateful for that.
Separately, I have recently finished (re-)reading two exciting books on human judgement and making decisions. You can find reviews of those books here and here.
Thank you for reading this post.