"Unpack the question into components. Distinguish as sharply as you can between the known and unknown and leave no assumptions unknown and leave no assumptions unscrutinised. Adopt the outside view and put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays its uniqueness and treats it as a special case of a wider class of phenomena. Then adopt the inside view that plays up the uniqueness of the problem. Also, explore the similarities and differences between your views and those of others - and pay special attention to prediction markets and other methods of extracting wisdom of crowds. Synthesise all these different views into a single vision as acute as that of a dragonfly. Finally, express your judgement as precisely as you can, using a finely grained scale of probability".