Date of review: December 2024 Book author: Donald R. Keough Вook published: 2008
The Ten Commandments for Business Failure by Donald R. Keough (2008)
A short review of a business book that has been on Berkshire Hathaway’s recommended reading list
BUY THIS BOOK
Investing is not just about the upside
As investors, we are always searching for more upside (higher growth, bigger market share, improved margins, increased dividend payouts, etc.)
There are at least two issues with such an approach. Firstly, by focusing solely on the upside, we miss risks associated with a specific investment opportunity. Avoiding risks is more important than chasing upside, definitely in the long term.
Secondly, we become exposed to the survivorship bias.
As the legendary investor Charlie Munger used to say: “Invert. Always Invert.”
In other words, when seeking the best companies to invest in, first consider what makes a company the worst investment. By eliminating all the qualities that lead to corporate failure, you will be left with a more robust framework for finding long-term winners.
I am glad that during my last trip to Omaha in May 2024, I picked up this short and not-so-recent book at Epsley Airport on my way back to London.
The book deals precisely with the topic of corporate failure. It was written by Don Keough, a friend of Warren Buffett, who has had an equally exciting career, having served as the president of Coca-Cola, chairman of Allen & Company and a board member of several leading companies, including Berkshire Hathaway.
Even more exciting is the fact that just like Buffett, Don Keough was born and grew up in Omaha on the same street (Farnam).
Here is what Warren Buffett wrote about Don in the introduction to the book:
“
When I’m with Don Keough, I can feel myself on the up escalator…When you are around Don, you are learning something all the time.
The book covers the ten most common reasons that lead to corporate failure. I think it is essential to periodically review them, especially before making a new long-term investment.
“
Show me a failed business, even one based on the latest wikinomics, and I will bet you with considerable assurance that their leaders have violated more than one of these commandments. One step toward failure, unchecked, leads to another.
—Don Keough
Ten Ways for Companies to Fail
Quit Taking Risks
As Keough noted: “When you’re comfortable, the temptation to quit taking risks is so great, it’s almost irresistible. And failure is almost inevitable."
Businesses fail when they avoid risks and play it safe. Innovation and growth require bold, but calculated risks.
2. Be inflexible
If you want to fail, then be inflexible.
"Flexibility and the ability to adapt is an essential attribute of leadership that goes beyond simple managerial, operational skills, or technical competence. I believe that flexibility is a continual, deeply thoughtful process of examining situations and, when warranted, quickly adapting to changing circumstances. It is, in essence, the key to Darwin's whole notion of the survival of the fittest. Flexibility, Adaptation."
Companies and investors should adapt to the constant technological changes to stay competitive and maximise opportunities. It's necessity. Refusing to adapt to change is a surefire to fail. Flexibility is critical in a constantly evolving business landscape.
3. Isolate Yourself
"If you isolate yourself, you will not only not know what you don't know about your business, but you will remain supremely and serenely confident that what you do know is right. Isolation, carried to its most extreme form, tends to breed a sense of almost divine right."
CEOs who distance themselves from feedback, customers, and employees make poor decisions and are at risk of failure. Successful managers have a deep understanding of their market, as well as a clear grasp of their customers, staff, and competitors.
4. Assume Infallibility
Believing you're always right blinds you to problems and better solutions. This is a central theme of the book where the author highlights the importance of mistakes being valuable teachers in business and our life.
"If you want to fail, pose as an infallible leader… If you want to increase your chances of failure, deny the possibility that you are not always 100 % perfect in your judgment. Ignore the fact that sometimes others do know a thing or two."
"Annual reports often amuse me, particularly the letter to shareholders. In one report after another, even if the company has had a thoroughly disastrous year, the chairman's letter is frequently an artful exercise in finger pointing at any number of causes ranging from unforeseen currency fluctuations to the unusually active hurricane season."
5. Play the game close to the Foul line
Trust is the foundation of business.
Keough notes, "All business finally boils down to matters of trust - consumers trust the product will do what it promises it is supposed to - investors trust that management is competent - employees trust management to live up to its obligations.”
"If you play the game close to the line you're not likely to inspire much trust on the part of your customers or employees. And you will fail… "
6. Don’t take time to think
Strategic thinking is essential. Management and Investors should refine their decision-making process by testing ideas and analysing similar situations or past mistakes. Acting without careful thought leads to poor strategies and avoidable mistakes.
"Management that is really doing its job is going to stumble from time to time. But if you want to fail, avoid looking closely at each mistake and don't analyse it. That way you will continue to make the same kind of mistake in the future."
Time to think is not a luxury. It is a necessity. As Goethe noted: "Action is easy; thought is hard."
As Keough put it, "If you want to fail, don't take time to think. If you want to succeed, take lots of time to think. Thinking is the best investment you'll ever make in your company, in your career, in your life."
7. Put all your faith in experts and outside consultants
Keough referred to Philip Tetlock's studies on world politics, where he found that experts were 80% confident in their predictions but were actually correct only 45% of the time. Moreover, in following up with these experts, they showed no sign of losing faith in their own understanding of the situation, no excuses that they were wrong.
Overreliance on consultants can lead to losing your company's unique vision and values. Balancing expert advice with internal expertise can help avoid the crucial mistakes for the company.
"Managers involved in restructurings, common in the aftermath of mergers or in shrinking a business, often must confront the painful process of laying off employees. Rather than communicate in an honest and straightforward manner with the affected people, they sometimes try to place the blame on the new business plan designed by an outside consulting firm. I find this the height of cowardice. If you commissioned the new plan, it's your baby. You are responsible. In the end, if you are unwilling to assume responsibility, if you abrogate your authority to a third-party expert, you will not succeed in carrying out the new plan anyway."
"Experts and consultants have vested interests, biases and shortcomings."
8. Love your bureaucracy
Excessive bureaucracy stifles creativity and slows decision-making.
"Bureaucrats are so busy protecting their own turf that they will actually block the flow of essential information and subvert any opportunity for success in order to enhance their own."
"If you want to lose some of your best talent, make sure that administrative concerns take precedence over all other! Love your bureaucracy!"
9. Send mixed messages
Inconsistent leadership and communication confuse employees and customers, leading to distrust.
Sending mixed or confused messages to your employees or your customers will jeopardise your competitive position and result in failure.
10. Be afraid of the future
Fear of the unknown discourages innovation and progress.
" If you want to fail, be afraid of the future. If you want to succeed, approach the future with optimism - and passion."
"When you focus on the failures of the world day in and day out, it shapes your whole attitude toward life and the future."
A bonus commandment: Lose your passion for work - for life
According to Don Keough, one has to be passionate about doing the job at hand to get the best results possible. The easiest way to develop an inner passion in a business setting is to focus all your mind and heart on four aspects of your world: your customers, your brands, your people, and, finally, your dreams.
It is no coincidence that almost all great companies have had passionate leaders over many years, with exceptional dedication and long-term vision.