I have fully exited the CNX position with a c. 60% gain in two years. The main issue for me was the slowdown in production despite rising capex which reduced sustainable FCF. While it is great to see CNX reduce its share count, the recent buyback has been partially financed with debt. Under current market conditions, the stock offers c. 10% FCF yield with almost zero growth. Given that it is a commodity business and with many other options available, I don’t think CNX offers the best risk-reward opportunity. Besides, I have considerable energy exposure via other stocks already.
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